A statewide poll released on the first day of early voting shows the Republican primary for South Carolina governor remains unsettled, with five candidates separated by just a few percentage points and more than a quarter of likely voters still undecided.
The survey, commissioned by the South Carolina Policy Council and conducted by Conquest Group, was released May 26 as voters in York County, Lancaster County and across the state began casting ballots ahead of the June 9 primary. The contest to succeed Gov. Henry McMaster, who is term limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term, sits at the top of the local ballot.
Pollsters surveyed 1,000 likely South Carolina primary voters, 500 Republicans and 500 Democrats, between May 18 and May 21, using a mix of live operator interviews and online text responses. Results were weighted to reflect a statewide partisan makeup of about 60% Republican and 40% Democratic. Questions asked of each party separately, including the races for governor, carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4.47 percentage points, according to the council. Questions put to the combined sample carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.16 percentage points.
Republican field tightly packed
Republican respondents reported a generally positive mood about the state. Asked whether South Carolina is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 49% said the right direction and 30% said the wrong track. Asked to rate state elected officials such as the governor and members of the State House, 48% rated their leadership positively, 34% called it fair and 15% called it poor.
That contentment has not coalesced behind a single candidate. When Republican voters were asked who they would support if the primary were held today, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette led with 16%, followed by U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman at 15%, Attorney General Alan Wilson at 14% and U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace at 13%. Rom Reddy drew 10% and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell registered 1%.
The largest share belonged to no candidate at all. About 27% of Republican respondents said they were not sure, a figure that topped every name on the list and pointed to how much room remains before primary day.
- Pamela Evette, Lieutenant Governor — 16%
- Ralph Norman, U.S. Congressman — 15%
- Alan Wilson, Attorney General — 14%
- Nancy Mace, U.S. Congresswoman — 13%
- Rom Reddy — 10%
- Josh Kimbrell, State Senator — 1%
- Not sure — 27%
Republican primary for Attorney General if the election were held today:
- Stephen Goldfinch, State Senator — 14%
- David Pascoe, First Circuit Solicitor — 10%
- David Stumbo, Eighth Circuit Solicitor — 9%
- Not sure — 65%
Republican primary for Commissioner of Agriculture poll results:
- Cody Simpson — 15%
- Danny Ford — 14%
- Jeremy Cannon — 5%
- Fred West — 3%
- Not sure — 62%
Democrats favor Johnson amid deep dissatisfaction
Democratic voters described a far gloomier view of the state. Just 4% said South Carolina is headed in the right direction, while 80% said it is on the wrong track. Only 4% rated state elected officials positively, while 31% called their leadership fair and 61% called it poor.
In the party’s primary for governor, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson held a clear lead at 27%, ahead of Billy Webster at 14% and Mullins McLeod at 6%. Nearly half of Democratic respondents, 49%, said they were undecided.
Democrats have not won a South Carolina governor’s race since 1998, and the eventual Republican nominee is widely viewed as the favorite in November. Even so, the large undecided blocs in both primaries leave the contests open to movement in the final stretch.
- Jermaine Johnson, State Representative — 27%
- Billy Webster — 14%
- Mullins McLeod — 6%
- Not sure — 49%
Broad appetite for reform
Across both parties, the poll found wide support for changing state institutions. Roughly 72% of all respondents said the process for selecting judges should be restructured to reduce legislative involvement and increase transparency, and 86% said the state’s transportation system needs reform.
Voting underway across the state
Early voting opened May 26 and runs through June 5, with the primary set for June 9. Races in which no candidate clears 50% will advance to runoffs on June 23.
Turnout in the opening hours pointed to heavy interest. The South Carolina Election Commission reported more than 32,000 ballots cast statewide by 1 p.m. on the first day and more than 55,500 by the time polls closed at 5 p.m. The previous single day record for a primary was about 23,000, set during the June 2024 primary.
Local voters can find early voting locations and sample ballots through the York County and Lancaster County election offices.
Source: South Carolina Policy Council statewide primary poll, May 2026, written by Sam Aaron and conducted by Conquest Group, and the South Carolina Election Commission.
