The National Hurricane Center is rolling out significant updates for the 2026 hurricane season, including a redesigned forecast cone and the expansion of storm surge alerts to Hawaii, officials announced Tuesday.
The changes aim to provide more localized data for inland residents and offer a more comprehensive view of potential storm paths.
“These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes,” said Michael Brennan, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
Expanded Visibility for Inland Threats
The NHC is officially moving forward with a revised forecast cone that now includes tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas. Previously, the graphic focused primarily on coastal threats.
The update follows a trial phase that showed inland communities were better able to prepare for wind hazards when their specific regions were shaded on the map. The new graphic will cover the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
For states like South Carolina, the update marks a shift in how risk is communicated to the Upstate and Midlands. Historically, residents in cities such as Columbia or Greenville may have felt secondary to coastal warnings. The 2026 cone will now explicitly show inland wind threats, addressing a critical gap exposed by recent storms that maintained strength far from the Atlantic shore.
New Experimental Accuracy
Additionally, the NHC is launching a new experimental track forecast. Since 2002, the cone has been based on circles centered on the forecast track. The 2026 experimental version will use ellipses to better account for errors in both speed and direction.
This model will also represent 90% of forecast possibilities, a significant jump from the traditional 67%. For emergency managers in the Carolinas, this expanded “margin of error” is intended to reduce the number of people caught off guard if a storm deviates from its projected center line.
Key features of the updated standard cone include:
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Single shading for the entire five-day outlook area.
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Inland watches and warnings integrated directly into the graphic.
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New legend symbols to denote areas where both hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.
The NHC stated these updates are part of a continued effort to improve public safety messaging and help the public better understand that the dangers of a tropical system extend far beyond the coast.
